In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic, demographic, and programmatic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled “Low Cost”) in the 2023 Trustees Report, the combined trust funds would be temporarily depleted before returning to positive levels by the end of the 75 year projection period. Under the other two sets (the “Intermediate” and “High Cost”) in the 2023 Trustees Report, the combined trust fund reserves become depleted within the next 15 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees’ best estimate of future experience.

Some benefits could be paid even if the trust fund reserves are depleted. For example, under the intermediate assumptions, annual income to the trust funds is projected to equal about eighty percent of program cost once the trust fund reserves become depleted. If no legislation has been enacted to restore long-term solvency by that time, about three-quarters of scheduled benefits could be paid in each year thereafter.

The Trustees believe that extensive public discussion and analysis of the long-range financing problems of the Social Security program are essential in developing broad support for changes to restore the long-range balance of the program.

For more information, go to: ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/fundFAQ.html

Teaching Suggestions:

• Ask students if the Social Security and Medicare programs will continue to face significant financing issues.  How can these issues be addressed now to mitigate future problems?
• Under current law, how are the Social Security and Medicare programs financed?
• Research project: Ask students to research how large are the assets reserves currently in the trust funds.

Discussion Questions:

1. What are the annual income and costs for the Social Security trust funds?
2. Currently, do the Social Security trust funds have an annual surplus or deficit?
3. How does 2023 outlook for Social Security compare to last year’s outlook?